Ahead of next weekend’s highly anticipated 2024 MLS Cup final, we break down what to expect, who to watch for, and predict who will win.
The 2024 MLS Cup is upon us, and it will feature an unexpected final. On one hand, there’s the five-time champion Los Angeles Galaxy, long the league’s poster child who have fallen under tough times in the decade since they added the last star to their crest. On the other, you have the New York Red Bulls, a historic underachiever that has yet to hoist the MLS Cup trophy despite years of star power and high expectations.
This match was supposed to be the crowning achievement of Inter Miami’s rise, but instead, MLS will celebrate one of its 10 original teams as the 2024 champion.
The Road to the Final
Heading into the 2024 MLS season, few pundits earmarked the Galaxy and the Red Bulls as championship contenders. In the league’s season preview, the Galaxy were predicted to finish no higher than fourth place in the Western Conference by the league’s cadre of analysts, with the floor set at 13th place, just one step up from the basement.
That low-side projection was shared by the Red Bulls in their preview, with their lowest predicted finish being in 14th place out 15 Eastern Conference teams. However, their high-side projection was sixth place in the East, with the consensus from most league pundits placing them between seventh and 10th.
While the league was right about the Red Bulls’ regular season finish — they placed seventh in the East — few saw their playoffs hot streak coming, and they’re making their first trip to the final since 2008. The Red Bulls have stuck to their “system” under first-year manager Sandro Schwarz, who joined the team after an abbreviated stint with German side Hertha BSC in the 2022-23 season.
While the year was marked by growing pains, the club found its rhythm through Emil Forsberg, whose leadership and balanced play have helped propel the team’s late season surge.
Forsberg leads the offensive charge, and is supported by Lewis Morgan, Elias Manoel, and Cameron Harper. This team may lack superstars, but its work ethic and gritty style have made it a tough matchup thus far in the playoffs.
For the Galaxy, their revival has been a throwback to what made them such a dominant force in MLS: a potent and dynamic attack. Dejan Joveljić, Riqui Puig, Gabriel Pec, and Joseph Paintsil have all added the spark that lifted the Galaxy to second place in the Western Conference.
Heading into the year, there were plenty of questions surrounding the team’s back line, which has been a main struggle over the past few seasons. And while the defense could get leaky at times, it has been solid enough to close out the season strong and seal several late victories, in particular the Western Conference final against Seattle.
Now, as we compare the two teams, let’s see who has the edge in the battle for the 2024 MLS Cup.
Star Power
This one’s a no-brainer: the LA Galaxy have the superior squad and individual stars. Pec and Paintsil, two of the Galaxy’s biggest signings in 2024, have provided a fresh attacking dimension, helping the team blow away opponents throughout both the regular season and playoffs.
However, the Galaxy will be without its biggest star, as Puig sustained an ACL injury late in the match against the Sounders. The former Barcelona midfielder has been one of the best signings in recent MLS history, and is arguably the best acquisition the Galaxy have ever made. At just 25 years old, Puig’s performances this season have been MVP-worthy, with 17 goals and 12 assists. He was the driving force behind the team’s fear-inducing offense, and he will be difficult to replace in the final.
The Red Bulls, by contrast, are much more of a “system” team. Forsberg is their biggest star, but no player hit double digits in goals this season.
Advantage: LA Galaxy
Defense
Both teams allowed 50 goals during the regular season, but when it comes to keeping their nets secure in the postseason, the Red Bulls have stepped up. With three playoff shutouts in four games, including a gritty performance against a dangerous Orlando City squad, the Red Bulls’ defense has been their strong suit.
The Galaxy, on the other hand, have had to shuffle their defense throughout the season. While the Japanese duo of Maya Yoshida and Miki Yamane have been mainstays in the back, injuries have forced the club to use a mix of players in the other two defensive positions.
In goal, the Red Bulls have a clear advantage with Carlos Coronel. The Paraguayan international is one of the league’s top goalkeepers, and his presence could be the difference-maker in this final. However, John McCarthy, who minds the net for the Galaxy, has proven to be made for the big moments, and he stole the show in the 2022 MLS Cup final with LAFC.
The goalkeeper matchup in this game has plenty of box office potential.
Advantage: Red Bulls
Midfield
The Galaxy’s midfield is explosive, with three attacking starters and excellent depth. Mid-season signing Marco Reus brings a wealth of big-game experience, and Diego Fagúndez and Gastón Brugman are quality options off the bench, capable of both attacking and defensive duties. They will both have to fill in for the injured Puig, which will be no small task.
The Red Bulls, while hardworking, fall short in terms of depth. They’ll need a collective defensive effort to contain the Galaxy’s midfield and give themselves a chance at winning the title.
Advantage: Galaxy
Forwards
The Galaxy’s forward line is a formidable force, with a dynamic attacking trio. The Red Bulls, while they have several players who can chip in with goals, don’t match the output of the Galaxy.
The Red Bulls scored 55 goals during the regular season, often winning tight playoff matches by narrow margins. The Galaxy, in contrast, scored 69 goals, with Pec contributing 16 to go along with 14 assists, one of seven MLS players with 30 goal contributions in 2024.
Advantage: Galaxy
Prediction
It’s been a long and winding road for both the Los Angeles Galaxy and the New York Red Bulls. The Galaxy, without question, are the more storied franchise, with five MLS Cup titles and one continental championship.
The Red Bulls, on the other hand, have a more modest history, marked by a string of disappointments and missteps. Though they’ve had star players like Roberto Donadoni, Thierry Henry, Lothar Matthäus, and Youri Djorkaeff over the years, the club has only made one MLS Cup final in its 29-year existence.
Now, with a smaller fanbase, fewer household names, and a commitment to the Red Bull “philosophy,” the team will be aiming to finally claim the title that has eluded it for so long.
Unfortunately for the Red Bulls, this year won’t be theirs. The Galaxy simply have too much firepower and depth, not to mention the home-field advantage, to let this championship slip away.
We predicted at the start of the playoffs that the Galaxy would be here, although many had hoped for a flashier final, perhaps featuring Inter Miami. Instead, we’re getting a matchup that harkens back to MLS’s roots, featuring two of the league’s original 10 teams: one that became the dominant force in MLS history, and the other that has spent nearly three decades in pursuit of a title that always seems just out of reach.
For the Galaxy, this 29th season will see them look at LAFC, Inter Miami, and the rest of the league and say, “Watch my six.” Consistency beats the flavor of the month.
