Major League Soccer kicked off its 30th season last Saturday, with all 30 teams getting back to the action on the pitch. Earlier in the same week, the United Soccer League preemptively chose to boldly announce its plan to launch a new Division One men’s professional league for the 2027-28 season. This groundbreaking notice has reverberated throughout the soccer world and we cannot ignore how much it will impact the overall future of American soccer.
Let there be no doubt, this announcement is a clear warning shot that draws distinct battle lines. In the world of professional sports, a competing league only has two outcomes after issuing a challenge to the reigning king: You either force a merger or get crushed.
Formerly, USL and MLS had cooperated together as cautious partners for almost a decade beginning in 2013. Occupying the third division at the time, the USL’s ranks nearly doubled from 13 to 24 teams with the new addition of MLS reserve sides. This sudden growth propelled the USL to apply to U.S. Soccer for Division Two sanctioning in early 2015.
Unfortunately, this tenuous agreement was inevitably doomed to fail. A wary partner could have perceived MLS’ penchant for cherry picking and welcoming the best USL teams as expansion franchises — Orlando City SC in 2015, FC Cincinnati in 2019, and Nashville SC in 2020 — as poor form. But wantonly encroaching into whichever territories they desired — Miami, Austin, Charlotte, St. Louis and San Diego — regardless if they harbored pre-existing USL teams was downright egregious to many, particularly in the case of Austin and San Diego.
Their eventual breakup was precipitated by MLS deciding to form its own third division league, MLS Next Pro, in 2022. Publicly, MLS had stated a desire to have more control over its pro player pathway, which in its eyes would improve and grow the sport. For its part, USL leadership from the outset took the position that the ending of the partnership was an opportunity to distinguish its own separate identity moving forward. Last week’s announcement maintained a cordial and synergistic position.
“Today is a defining moment for the USL and the future of soccer in the United States,” said Alec Papadakis, CEO of the United Soccer League. “Creating a Division One league is a bold step forward, expanding access to top-tier competition, deepening the connection between our communities and taking another step in aligning with the structure of the global game. By uniting people through soccer and bringing Division One to more cities, we’re not just growing the sport — we’re creating lasting opportunities while building a more sustainable and vibrant soccer ecosystem in the U.S.”
One might assume that the USL’s long-term plans would usher in a grand, new era that provides “more opportunities for players, teams, front offices, and communities,” while somehow working cohesively with the incumbent regime. One would be quite wrong. Make no mistake about this. MLS is the king in this country and currently celebrating its 30th year on the throne.
“You come at the king, you best not miss.” – Omar Little (“The Wire”)
Lamar Hunt was an American businessman, born into a wealthy family and the son of an oil tycoon. However, his true love was sports and he was an avid athlete throughout his childhood and college years. He is most notable for his promotion of athletics in the U.S. and was a principal founder of MLS as well as its predecessor, the North American Soccer League. The U.S. Open Cup, the oldest national soccer tournament in the country, is named in his honor for his contributions to the sport.
However, before any of these events ever took place, Hunt had always dreamed of owning an NFL team since his prep school days. As an adult, he had met with then-NFL commissioner Bert Bell in the hopes of bringing a team to Dallas, only to be turned down repeatedly. There wouldn’t be any league expansion in the foreseeable future and even if there was, it would require a unanimous vote from the owners. He had exhausted all avenues and no NFL owner was willing to offer him a controlling interest in a team.
According to Michael MaCambridge, author of Lamar Hunt: A Life in Sports, this was the moment Hunt made the decision to start a new professional football league.
The American Football League was launched in 1960 with eight franchises. In addition to being a principal founder of the AFL, Hunt was now the proud owner of the Dallas Texans. He, along with the other owners and the commissioner were soon dubbed “The Foolish Club.” Time would soon reveal who was actually foolish and who was calculatingly shrewd.
North America’s four major sports leagues are the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. While the respective years in which they began varies — MLB being the oldest in 1876 and the NBA being the most recent in 1949 — they all have the common distinction of having merged with an upstart competitor at some point in their histories. None of these couplings were amicable, and if a merger is to occur, it will always be induced through utter force and sheer will. Let’s be frank, a newcomer is never welcomed gladly into the rarified air of an established kibbutz.
MLS has been reigning now for 30 years, and in the historical context of the Big Four sports, we’re on track for a potential merger.1MLB: The National League was formed in 1876 and cemented its cooperation with the American League 27 years later. NHL: Founded in 1917 and absorbed the WHA in a merger agreement 62 years later. NFL: Founded in 1920 and merged with the AFL 46 years later. NBA: Created in 1949 and merged with the ABA 27 years later. While there may be some unhappy folks scattered throughout the realm, MLS will not be abdicating its throne anytime soon. The best outcome the USL can hope for is not to vie in a battle for supremacy, but rather to aim for a shared monarchy.2See the demise of the NASL as a stark example. Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.
Somewhat controversially, MLS operates as a single-entity instead of as independently owned clubs. Team owners actually own a share in the league and are afforded the right to individually operate a club. Therefore, team owners are actually investors known as operators who are partners in the league rather than individual club owners. MLS is the only league in the U.S. that operates as a single-entity structure.
Currently, there are 30 teams in MLS with the common understanding that the league will eventually top off at 32 total teams. Cities most often cited as potential locations for the last two spots all currently have teams competing in the USL Championship. As such, if and when MLS has finally quenched its thirst for expansion, the USL will find itself out in the cold and thoroughly plundered of its fruits from its grassroots efforts in establishing viable soccer communities.
Now that we’ve firmly established the players and the rules of the game, what’s the best move for the USL going forward? First and foremost, its strategy should be expressly dictated by the tacit goal of forcing a merger. That is not to say the organization should only prioritize its soon-to-be created Division One league and not also focus on its other lower divisions or women’s and youth leagues. But eventually, all roads lead to Rome.
The Blueprint
U.S. Soccer’s professional standards for men’s leagues lists various requirements that must be met in order to receive Division One sanctioning. One of the requirements is in the area of financial viability in which owners must demonstrate the financial capacity to operate the team for five years. Additionally, one principal owner with a controlling interest who owns at least 35% of the team must have a net worth of at least $40 million. The ownership group must have a combined individual net worth of at least $70 million. Properly determining the profile of prospective ownership groups will be crucial for the USL.
Reset the Team Owner Profile
Considering that the most recent expansion fee for San Diego FC was $500 million, it is safe to say that the recent entrants of MLS ownership groups easily qualify by a large margin. For the possibility of a merger to occur, the USL will have to accept the new reality. There is absolutely no room for team owners who barely meet the minimum requirements of the professional league standards. USL will need ownership groups who can match the likes of MLS clubs such as San Diego, who are owned by Egyptian billionaire Mohamed Mansour and the Sycuan Band of Kumeyaay Nation.
Although it is expected that some of the current USL Championship clubs will be selected for the Division One league, it is my belief that they do not meet the financial profile that’s needed for the long fight ahead. It’s most likely that the current crop of team owners will need to bring in additional investment to bolster new ownership groups. Division One teams will need owners who could just as easily have made the $500 million franchise fee, but for whatever reason chose not to or weren’t afforded the opportunity. The criteria should no longer be satisfied by being wealthy — they must now be extremely wealthy.
Initially, the NFL ignored Hunt’s AFL assuming the fledgling league would not last. However, the AFL was able to survive and grow and soon the two leagues began to compete for players, fans, and media coverage. After tiring of the commercial rivalry and bidding wars over players, the two leagues officially merged before the 1970 season to end what had been a 10-year fight.
One critical advantage the AFL enjoyed over the established incumbent was that its owners on average were wealthier than its NFL counterparts. This allowed Hunt and the other owners to withstand the inevitable financial losses early on and wait it out.
Scared money doesn’t make money. The USL will need to have owners with deep pockets who will not only survive but help grow the league. There will be some visionaries and risk takers amongst the current group of owners, but not all will have the financial capacity or stomach to ride out the storm. Those who cannot will simply have to enjoy limited success in its wake and stay in the lower divisions.
Open the Bank and Sign the Right Players
The USL must avoid becoming just an inferior, less desirable product to MLS at all costs. To that end, they must make a concerted effort to actively sign high-profile players and draw both young and established talent away from MLS. While it would be unrealistic to expect its league’s skill level as a whole to be on par with MLS, it is entirely reasonable to target and sign specific, desirable players.
The AFL was able to convince Joe Namath to spurn the NFL and sign with its league’s New York Jets by signing him to an unprecedented $427,000 contract. It was the most lucrative deal signed by a rookie in any sport at the time. Getting Namath, a star quarterback at the University of Alabama, was a major coup for the AFL.
Likewise, the practice of luring high profile players with money was a common strategy employed by the other upstart leagues. The World Hockey Association competed with the NHL for talent by bringing on 67 of its players during its first season. The biggest headline was signing Bobby Hull away from the Chicago Blackhawks with a 10-year, $2.75 million contract with the Winnipeg Jets, then the largest in hockey history. The ABA’s practice of luring NBA players was at the heart of its strategy of hoping to force a merger from the very beginning.
Attracting the right talent should be a combination of utilizing financial resources and thinking creatively. The ABA believed college players should be able to leave for professional leagues early under extenuating circumstances. This was at a time when the NBA prohibited players from joining until after finishing their four years of college eligibility. The courts ruled in favor of the ABA and the Spencer Haywood Hardship Rule would later become the framework of the NBA draft system allowing players to declare early for the NBA.
Rather than going the traditional route, the AFL signed players from small colleges and historically Black universities that were mostly ignored by the NFL. They also presciently sought out NFL rejects and mis-evaluated players that turned out to be superstars.
One of the biggest criticisms of American soccer is that it’s too static with not enough excitement. The USL has a great chance to embrace a flashier style that isn’t readily found in MLS. There is still a large pool of young, talented soccer players from overlooked Latin and inner-city communities that have untapped potential.
Rather than creating a copycat league with a slightly lower skill level, the USL should take risks and embrace innovations and a more exciting style of play. The ABA not only distinguished itself from the NBA with its more open, flashy style of play, but also introduced the 3-point shot and the slam dunk contest — both of which would be later adopted by the NBA.
People generally don’t watch sports for defense. Fans still fondly recall a young Cristiano Ronaldo playing for Manchester United doing a dizzying amount of step-overs and feints. They didn’t always work and sometimes infuriated even his own teammates, but everyone could recognize the fear in the eyes of his opponents and his inevitable superstardom. The USL has a golden opportunity to distinguish itself by fostering a high-scoring, flashier style of soccer that is currently unavailable in the U.S. market.
Negotiate a Favorable Broadcast Deal
A major victory for the AFL during its fight with the NFL was in landing a lucrative TV deal. The AFL’s original deal with ABC had each team receiving approximately $100,000 in comparison to NFL’s much larger deal with CBS, which amounted to $950,000 per team. But when ABC opted out of its final year, it opened the door for the AFL to negotiate with NBC, who had just lost the NFL rights to CBS. With NBC still sore from its bidding war loss, and using the recent NFL contract as a guide, the AFL was able to successfully negotiate a deal for $42 million over five years — a shock at the time.
According to Hunt, “It put our teams almost on par with the NFL teams. It was the single most dramatic development in making the AFL competitive.”
The USL currently has a broadcast deal with CBS Sports that runs through the end of 2027 and includes the Championship and League One seasons. Airing 100 USL matches throughout the year, the current deal is timed to end perfectly with the launch of its Division One league. Additionally, it appears that it will also coincide with the timing of its broadcast agreement for the Super League, its Division One professional women’s soccer league.
Negotiating a lucrative, long-term contract is critical to the USL’s financial survival. A large factor towards maximizing a future broadcast agreement lies in differentiating itself from MLS. The new league and by extension the other divisions have to be a disruptor that adds entertainment value beyond the current offering. This could be in the form of implementing promotion and relegation, which could cataclysmically shift public support in its favor. Although it would be difficult to execute, we know that USL leadership have it on the table for consideration, and we know MLS would never implement pro/rel of its own accord. Undoubtedly, the overall quality will be contrasted directly in comparison to MLS. The USL should recognize the unique opportunity to package multiple leagues in both men’s and women’s sides and strengthen its value add while presenting the men’s Division One as the flagship product.
“Life comes full circle.”
Lamar Hunt’s lifelong dream to own a NFL franchise was only realized after years of challenging the status quo. Because the NFL wouldn’t open the door for him, he forced his way in through the creation of a competing league and eventual merger. The vestige of this past struggle is still found on the NFL’s American Football Conference trophy, which is also named in his honor. If he were still alive today to bear witness to this upcoming scuffle, it is very likely that he would quite enjoy seeing them face off.
